Meet | Definition of Meet by Merriam-Webster
You might measure anger as the loudness of a person's voice in decibels existing ones do not meet your needs (or perhaps because they are too expensive). A synonym for outcome variable is dependent variable, often abbreviated. DV. . “order statistic” or “rank” which counts the placement of a variable in an ordered. Ecstatic definition is - of, relating to, or marked by ecstasy. How to use for example—still offer a collective ecstatic experience, as did rock culture at its height. Define indeed (adverb) and get synonyms. What is indeed (adverb)? indeed ( adverb) meaning, pronunciation and more by Macmillan Dictionary.
A window that focuses attention on what a decision is about, thereby providing direction to subsequent steps in a decision-making process. A relation between two or more variables so that the values of one are dependent on, determined by or correspond to values in the other variables, its arguments; a transformation whose range is uniquely specified by its domain.
In algebra and set theory, functions are often called many-to-one mappings or images. Use as a criterion in decisions, such as the use of a building that gives rise to space allocations and other user requirements that stipulates its design. A function is a relation in which each element in the domain is matched with only one element of the range.
A function may be specified: Choice with uncertain outcomes. Probability in an equivalent gamble between arbitrary good and bad. Treating random events such as a dice roll as if the outcome of one roll implies something about the outcome of the next roll. A reference to a set of optimal strategies for decisions which involve uncertainty resulting from conflicting objectives of players with interdependent decision situations.
Distinction is made between zero-sum and non-zero-sum games. A state that decision-maker prefers to be in, e. The capability of asking what values certain variables must have in order to attain desired goals. It is a tool that uses iterative calculations to find the value required in one parameter in order to achieve a desired outcome.
Going through the GOO: Analyzing goals, options, and outcomes often in a tabular form. Several tactics can improve the performance of groups. In particular, organizations that stress participation emphasize the formulation and cohesion stages and tend to ignore the process and control stages.
This practice reduces the effectiveness of groups. Carefully considering each phase is the key to successful group performance. Several guides that can improve the performance of a group are summarized below: Many groups use consumers to define service problems, administrators from sister institutions to sensitize the group to political and resource constraints, and experts such as physicians to supply technical information.
However, homogeneous decision groups with moderate status differentials are best. Mixing members who satisfy political constraints with members who are expected to provide information in a group is unwise. Group members who serve because of a need to participate should not be mixed with those who seek to influence results. Large groups are best for development and information generation tasks, whereas small groups are superior in influencing and making judgments.
A subcommittee strategy can be used for decisions that must be made by a large, unwieldy group. Cooptation, selecting a group that represents centers of power the sponsor hopes to manage, is a vastly overused tactic. The benefits of cooptation acceptance and innovation are not realized when intragroup conflicts are present and unmanaged. Group leaders can take on various leadership styles. A socioemotional style provides social rewards, such as recognition and tension release, which is best for decision tasks because this style elicits information and enhances acceptance of a decision.
Task leaders contribute more information but create tension. Task leaders are best for developmental tasks or highly uncertain decisions because actions must be defended by logical arguments. A group can enhance its base of power by using such tactics as initiating investigations, making request or threats. Stating views, announcing a decision to monitor reactions, asking for support, and vigorously defending a decision once it is made. Groups often select a tactic that is unlikely to work in enhancing their power.
Concrete goals are preferred. They hold a group responsible for a result and make good performance more likely. Consensus building must be carried out differently with a group in conflict over issues than with a group that has conflict among its members. Issue conflicts are best handled through leadership in defining the issue and getting relevant information. Group control is often limited to social rewards. Organizations can use formal presentations and other recognitions as sources of reward for committee work.
Making the task accomplishment an intrinsic reward assumes that favorable aspects of the process quick resolution, good relationships, and the like are possible, whereas unfavorable aspects of the process conflict, frustration, and cliques can be eliminated or minimized. Relying solely on task accomplishment as a source of satisfaction can be a poor strategy unless the unfavorable aspects of participation can be managed and ameliorated.
A group process is used to manage the activities of a decision group. The process helps a decision group create new ideas, bring forward information, exchange views, and make judgments. Survey, interacting, nominal, Delphi, brainwriting, and nominal-interactive procedures are viable options that can be effectively used.
A way to match process options to the demands of the decision task was presented. An interacting process is best for influencing and judging, and a silent reflective process is best for information generation and development tasks. The best way to control the effects of groupthink is through a group process.
The process forces a wide consideration of views, which makes stereotyped responses harder to maintain. Group process is far more effective than critical evaluator tactics and can be used to make multiple groups and impartial leaders more effective.
Finally, group process permits the use of a socioemotional leadership style in guiding the discussion and judging aspects of a group. This, in turn, allows a group to grapple with conflict-ridden decisions that demand member acceptance. The process used when there are many known stakeholders. In this process, a decision group made up of these stakeholders takes steps to explore possibilities, assess options, ask "what-if" questions, and reflect in order to learn. A set of procedures used to manage the activities of a group engaged in decision-making activities, such as identifying problems and uncovering alternatives.
A trial-and-error tactic used by a decision maker to speed the process of learning or finding out. The tendency to treat observed outcomes as if they were more likely than facts would warrant or even as if they were preordained. Single description of total possibilities. Reference to the independent decision-making intentions, opportunities, capabilities and activities of human beings.
Based on a possibility that has not, or not yet, occurred, e. It is the opposite of actual judgment. Perfect analysis of all available knowledge. An act of prediction that makes the predicted outcome seem more certain- for example, attributing good outcomes to skill and bad ones to chance, which leads to treating out-of-control situations as if they were under control and to minimal learning about missed opportunities.
Misleading connections between signs and conditions they are thought to predict. Difference in value, criterion score or contributor value, due to exercising an option, i. Narrow variant of a broader choice. Relative importance of criteria, trading off units, i.
At least partially reversible option. Evidence supports truth of a possibility, i. A conclusion that is drawn by applying reasoning to available information to arrive at a decision.
Qualitative influence diagram shows casual linkages between choice and utility. A technique applied in important and recurring decisions to promote learning by recreating actual decision situations. The parties involved are disguised, and the decision is described with the facts available when the actual decision was rendered. A comparison of the simulated decisions and the original choices in terms of outcomes indicates how well one can do.
Source of judgment to be assessed. Unique or problematic interpretations drawn from information-rich situations in which the means used to assess information are controversial. The ability of decision makers to observe, catalogue, and make judgments on the basis of information they observe. To use a new, not necessarily better, way of responding to aims or objectives. Knowing without the conscious use of reasoning or logic.
Decision Making Keywords and Phrases
Term to be supplied in a model or inference procedure, from which output is calculated. Action within organization, e.Movie Theater Stereotypes
It is the opposite of outside act. A series of decisions that are interrelated. A sequential set of decisions are usually interdependent. Interest-based problem solving defines problems in terms of interests and works to reconcile the interests to obtain a mutually-satisfactory solution.
Their interests are affected by choice. Validation internal to model, e.
It is used to refer to conflicts that go on for a long time, resisting most if not all attempts to resolve them. They often involve unavoidable win-lose situations as well. The ability to hold multiple views while making a decision. The term comes from the Roman god Janus, who was the patron of beginnings and endings and is usually shown with two faces symbolize the need for multiple views as a decision is made. Probability that two or more events occur together. Personal assessment or other evaluation.
The act of deciding by an individual or group vested with authority. Main analytic effort is on assessing model inputs, not structure. Improved by new knowledge. A set of beliefs formed by experience and assembled as theories or scripts that suggest relationships among people, events, and objects. Knowledge refers to what one knows and understands. Knowledge is sometimes categorized as unstructured, structured, explicit or tacit.
What we know we know is explicit knowledge. Knowledge that is unstructured and understood, but not clearly expressed is implicit knowledge. If the knowledge is organized and easy to share then it is called structured knowledge. To convert implicit knowledge into explicit knowledge, it must be extracted and formatted.
Assume nothing about the likelihood of future conditions, making the valuation of alternatives an average of the payoffs under each future condition also called the uncertainty rule. Law of Diminishing Returns: A reference to the law which states that additional inputs of a variable factor of production combined with fixed factors of production will eventually lead to a decreasing marginal output. A form of learning in which reflection on both process and outcome occurs, leading to a reappraisal of norms and values applied in making decisions and the steps to follow also called double-loop learning and learning two.
Good decisions can lead to bad outcomes because chance events are never fully predictable in tough decisions. Simulation and group-process tactics provide a way to deal with the creeping determinism inherent in the hindsight bias. Expectations can shift during a decision process, and this creates problems in interpreting outcomes, such as rates of success.
Double-loop learning permits the decision maker to deal with coverups prompted by fear of failure and shift norms to account for new circumstances. Actor and process assessments must be separated if one is to reflect on the process and its outcome in order to find needed process steps and improve forecasts in decision making.
The analysis of actual and simulated decisions can be used to clarify the way in which values, expressed as differences in the weights assigned to criteria, influence a decision. Conflict can be managed by showing that differences in value do not influence a choice. When value differences are important, isolating differences that matter for example, those that influence the choice among alternatives avoids distraction by focusing discussion on areas in which differences are important.
Through demonstrations of how decision makers use information, the need for decision aids, such as analysis and information systems, becomes obvious. Decision makers cannot reliably carry out the necessary computations to value alternatives without conducting some analysis. Learning about decision making is dependent on appreciating how well decision makers can perform under various conditions.
By using analytical techniques to support the decision process, decision makers can reduce the error rates for medical diagnoses, graduate admissions, and other tough decisions. Discovering pitfalls to avoid in future decisions and ways to avoid these pitfalls. A function whose graph is a straight line Linear programming: Linear programming is a mathematical procedure it has nothing to do with computer programming languages that is implemented with computers so that systems of linear equations can be solved to determine the optimal values of variables that affect a value function.
This technique is often used in business for solving problems as varied as workforce scheduling, production planning and input selection, loan portfolio funding, gasoline blend mixing, advertising targeting, and many other problems where the allocation of scarce resources is an important consideration. Main Components of Decision Making: Objectives are set to direct the search for alternatives and criteria to assess the alternatives.
The scope of an objective is a key consideration in decision making. The objective-setting technique points out the means-ends linkage among objectives in a hierarchical relationship.
Decision makers should select the broadest possible objective to avoid unnecessarily restricting the search for responses in the form of alternatives. Group processes provide a way to carry out objective setting, criteria selection, norm identification, and the generation of alternatives. Ethical issues can arise as objectives are set, criteria identified, and alternatives uncovered.
Treating ethical concerns as a legitimate rationality in decision making, having equal standing with economic and political rationality, creates the opportunity to raise and deal with ethics.
Using group process provides a way to raise the discussion from the lowest to the highest common denominator, to help decision-makers deal with ethical concerns. The following techniques can be used to weight criteria and estimate the likelihood of future conditions: Anchored rating scales, Paired comparisons, Ranked-weight, and Direct assignment.
Decision makers select among these techniques by noting the way in which information must be collected for example, by using groups in a face-to-face meeting or by mailed survey. Because of the subjectivity of these estimates, the values are often exposed to "what-if" questioning to explore how uncertainty in future conditions and values for criteria influence a choice Making Tough Decisions: Decision makers who concentrate solely on managing conflict must make assumptions that sweep away ambiguity and uncertainty, treating tough decisions as if they were easy.
The analytical approach which stresses the importance of the margins of an activity: The addition to total cost resulting from the addition of the last unit of output, to the total quantity of output. Person or group dealing with aider on behalf of decision-maker. Ways of responding to core problems that were overlooked or rejected during a decision process.
The process recommended when unknown or competing factions can be identified as stakeholders. A coalition of stakeholders with aims that correspond to those of the organization is formed to explore possibilities, assess options, ask "what-if" questions, and reflect in order to learn.
A collection of preprogrammed quantitative models e. Mathematical function equated to, or approximating, some entity, e. A model is a set of propositions or equations describing in simplified form some aspects of our experience.
Every model is based upon a theory, but the theory may not be stated in concise form. An object or process which shares crucial properties of an original, modeled object or process, but is easier to manipulate or understand. A scale model i. However, increasing use is made of computer simulation: It is easier to change a program than to rebuild a scale model if we want to explore the effect of changes in policy or design.
A model is a device, scheme, or procedure typically used in systems analysis to predict the consequences of a course of action; a model usually aspires to represent the real world to the degree needed in analysis --for example, a relation between some observed phenomena. A model can be formal, e. A deterministic model generates the response to a given input by one fixed law; a stochastic model picks up the response from a set of possible responses according to a fixed probability distribution, stochastic models are used to simulate the behavior of real systems under random conditions.
A dynamic model can describe the time-spread phenomena, dynamic processes, in a system. A static model describes the system at a given instant of time and in an assumed state of equilibrium. Among the formal, mathematical models an analytical model is formed by explicit equations. It may permit an analytic or numerical solution.
An analytic model is linear if all equations in the model are linear. We speak of a simulation model if the solution, i. A typical example is stochastic simulation, where one wants to obtain probabilistic properties of a system's response by evaluating the results of a large number of simulation runs on the model.
In some analyses the model by which one predicts the outcome of a course of action must take into account that this outcome depends also on actions taken by other decision makers.
If the assumption can be made that those decision makers optimize some defined objective functions, and all the other aspects of the system can also be formalized, an optimization model e.
A formal model has a structure the form of an equation, for example and parameters the value of coefficients in an equation for example. Determination of both the structure and parameters is model identification; determination of the parameters on the basis of experimental data is model estimation.
The check of a proposed model against experimental data other than those used for parameter estimation is model validation. A model is a system that stands for or represents another typically more comprehensive system.
A model consists of a set of objects, described in terms of variables and relations, and interactions defined on these and either a embodies a theory of that portion of reality which it claims to represent.
Modeling is an attempt to represent the bare bones of reality, so that aspects of it can be described, explained, optimized or predicted what the reality is; so that we can predict it. We can use a model to understand how changes in the environment impact the decision problem that a manager faces.
The outputs or findings from the modeling process enable an analyst to determine the logical results of decision, and choose an optimal course of action. Similarly, changes in the environment and variables surrounding the decision problem can be studied to determine the effects that they have on the decision problem. Partitioned evaluation, summing money-equivalent components of criteria scores. A simulation technique that allows combining various factors with probabilistic outcomes to characterize the distribution of an end result.
This is especially useful when the number of factors affecting the outcome is large. It allows modeling of complex problems with relative ease. We use Monte Carlo simulation for solving problems such as demand and capacity forecasting, process optimization and real options analysis Multicriteria decisions: Decisions in which several outcomes can occur and in which each outcome has a value that must be considered in order to compare the merits of alternatives.
Elimination by aspects and expected value provide two ways to deal with multiple criteria and incorporate them into the valuation of alternatives. Elimination by aspects is quick and efficient and is used for multicriteria short-fuse decision.
The expected-value approach provides a more precise way to assign values to alternatives and can deal with the uncertainty in tough decisions. The expected-value approach creates a valuative index that links the payoff of an alternative, measured by several criteria, to plausible future conditions. Sensitivity analysis can be applied to criteria weights to treat the weights as assumptions that can be relaxed. This type of analysis determines alternatives that are sensitive and those that are insensitive to preferences expressed as weights.
This assessment reveals conditions under which each alternative is preferred as preferences about criteria weights shift. The concept of utility allows a decision maker or expert to specify how preference or value changes with changes in the level of a criterion, such as satisfaction.
This step is essential for situations in which increases in the level of a criterion may have no practical value, such as birth weight in the woman-infants-children program. Techniques are available to draw utility curves that link value with changes in the level of a criterion to capture this relationship. Only addresses conflicting criteria considerations. Technical, personal, and organization views of a decision that are used to incorporate a balanced view of factors that merit consideration.
Applying technical, personal, and organizational perspectives to a decision provides a way to broaden the perspectives of a decision maker and deal with the biases inherent in the decision styles of participants. A synthesis of the T, P, and O perspectives provides a superior way to carry out a decision process by incorporating the T, P, and O values as objectives, alternative courses of action, and criteria by which to judge the alternatives that are uncovered.
Evaluating choice or uncertainty at different tiers of model Musts-and-Wants: There is a conceptual distinction between e. Measure of a real quantity, e. This technique is useful when a large number of independent factors affect an outcome in complex and non-linear fashion. Multivariate and non-linear regressions can be used as substitutes. Regressions have the advantage of being able to demonstrate the individual factorial relationships.
However, neural nets are useful when relationships are non linear and complex. A standard identifying a level of performance that is expected or required. A type of statement that suggests how a decision should be carried out also called prescriptive. Estimates of quantitative information obtained by traditional means, such as accounting systems for costs.
An objective is something that a decision maker seeks to accomplish or to obtain by means of his decision. A decision maker should have one objective, while formulating the other objectives as constraints. An objective must be quantified. The term goal or target is sometimes used to achieve specific value for the objective. Something to which an effort is directed, the goal, purpose or criterion a decision maker uses to evaluate alternative courses of actions.
The choice of objective constrains possible behaviors. The intentions of the decision process that set out what is to be strived for or sought also called aims. Relies on data-based analysis rather than on human judgment. This proposition extends the simple self-interest seeking assumption to include "self-interest seeking with guile" thereby making allowance for strategic behavior.
For example, strategic manipulation of information or misrepresentation of intentions; false or empty, i. Opportunistic behavior contrasts with stewardship behavior which involves a trust relation in which the word of a party can be taken as his bond. The cost of an activity in terms of foregone or sacrificed next best alternative uses of the assets involved.
Can also be formulated as "amount of product B we must give up to produce a unit of product A. A technical relationship identifying the maximum output or combination of outputs products capable of being produced by a specified input or combinations of inputs factors of production. Using a maximum rule to find the best payoff for the most likely future conditions or the best payoff regardless of future conditions. Optimization is an activity that aims at finding the best i. For optimization to be meaningful there must be an objective function to be optimized and there must a set of constraints.
The optimal solution or "solution to the optimization problem" is values of decision variables that satisfy the constraints and for which the objective function attains a maximum or a minimum, in a minimization problem.
Very few optimization problems can be solved analytically, that is, by means of explicit formulae. In most practical cases appropriate computational techniques of optimization numerical procedures of optimization must be used. Among those techniques linear programming permits the solution of problems in which the objective function and all constraint relations are linear.
Optimization problems are made up of three basic ingredients. An objective function which we want to minimize or maximize, for instance, in a manufacturing process, we might want to maximize the profit or minimize the cost. In fitting experimental data to a user-defined model, we might minimize the total deviation of observed data from predictions based on the model. In designing an automobile panel, we might want to maximize the strength.
It contains a set of unknowns or decision variables which affect the value of the objective function. In the manufacturing problem, the variables might include the amounts of different resources used or the time spent on each activity.
In fitting-the-data problem, the unknowns are the parameters that define the model. In the panel design problem, the variables used define the shape and dimensions of the panel. Finally, it has a set of constraints that allow the unknowns to take on certain values but exclude others.
For the manufacturing problem, it does not make sense to spend a negative amount of time on any activity, so we constrain all the "time" variables to be non-negative.
In the panel design problem, we would probably want to limit the weight of the product and to constrain its shape. The optimization problem is then to find values of the variables that minimize or maximize the objective function while satisfying the constraints. Decision strategy to seek optimal option. The decision strategy of choosing the alternative that gives the best or optimal overall value. A possible action to be chosen by decision-maker, alternative, deal. Information received early in a decision process is given more weight than information received later in the process.
Where the organization is treated as the decider. Improving the capacity of the organization to make good decisions, neutralizing coverups by removing the incentives for decision makers in the organization to offer only good news. Distinct events due to action; a special case of consequences. The results of a decision process that value the alternative that was selected by measuring the results in terms of the decision criteria for example, cost, satisfaction, quality, and use.
Calculated from a model or inference procedure, including their inputs. Transaction between organization as decision-maker and outside world, e. A characteristic of information that makes it hard to recall because of a lack of personal identity, distance, or abstractness. Disaggregated into additive components.
Reference to effects of past commitments or acquired knowledge on subsequent actions and decisions. Recognizing that "history matters" for a future course of action or development, such past commitments or learning activities could entail previous investments, e. Evaluating options by quantifying decision-maker judgments, based on statistical decision theory, i.
Models human judgment, e. When high stakes call for conservative choices, a minimax rule is used to identify future conditions that lead to the worst outcomes and to make choices that avoid these future conditions by selection of the alternative with the best payoff that is left. A managerial function concerned with making forecasts, formulating outlines of things to do, and identifying methods to accomplish them.
Branches of outcomes, i. The act of estimating something before it occurs. Related to value judgments. Prescribes action that should be taken. An amount received now as a judgmental equivalent to future amount, e. Preventive Strategies for Bad Decisions: Tough decisions can become bad decisions when ambiguity, uncertainty, and conflict are ignored, treated superficially, or assumed away during decision making. Tough decisions can produce bad outcomes no matter what precautions decision makers take, because key factors that influence the outcome are often governed by chance events.
Bad decisions occur when foreseeable events are not recognized and managed. Informed decision makers adopt good decision practices and take realistic steps to appraise outcomes, seeking ways to improve their decision-making capacity.
The decision process presented in the companion sites is designed to overcome the problems encountered by managers in coping with tough decisions. The recommended order of activity is as follow: Explore possibilities by uncovering core problems, setting objectives, and identifying ways to respond. Assess options by using criteria derived from objectives linked to the likelihood of future conditions and the values of key stakeholders.
Experiment by relaxing key assumptions to assess risk. Search for missed opportunities by reflecting on outcomes. Before some specified evidence is learned. A decision situation which illustrates the benefits of cooperation or collective action but also the difficulty of arriving at such an outcome. The decision payoffs are structured so that it is individually beneficial not to collaborate with the fellow prisoner even though collaboration by both would yield acceptable outcomes and clearly better than if both defect.
Each prisoner feels that she has to defect due to the uncertainty about the "partner's" action. Decision in private life, personal or civic, i. Displays unconditional and conditional probabilities of covarying possibilities. Metric obeying certain formal rules e. The likelihood or chance that a certain event will occur. Probabilities may be based on "objective" statistical frequency-of- occurrence procedures or on subjective procedures and personal beliefs.
In Bayesian analysis, a distinction is made between "prior" before Sum of all possible outcomes of a gamble times the probability of each, expected value, e-value, and expectation, mean. Concerns that specify what a decision is about, including background information that depicts its origins and the motivations of stakeholders.
This term is sometimes used to refer to analytical problem solving workshops that seek to analyze and resolve conflicts based on identifying and providing the underlying human needs. In other situations, it refers to an approach to mediation that focuses primarily on resolving the conflict Procedural problems: Procedural problems are problems with decision making procedures.
Examples are decisions that are made without considering relevant and important facts, decisions that are made arbitrarily without considering the interests or needs of the affected people, or decisions that are made without following the established and accepted process.
Often, procedural problems can intensify and complicate disputes which could be resolved relatively easily if proper procedures were followed. Made in a professional capacity e. One not to be made now, but possibly later.
It is the opposite of current. A strategy in system development in which a scaled down system or portion of a system is constructed in a short time, tested, and improved in several iterations. A prototype is an initial version of a system that is quickly developed to test the effectiveness of the overall design being used to solve a particular problem.
Elaborates only uncertainty considerations. A condition that arises when cues that describe what a decision is about are obscure or vague. Descriptions of the basic nature of a decision according to features that characterize sentiments of key stakeholders, winner and losers for particular options, problem definitions, and so on, expressed as criteria weights and likelihood of future conditions. Measurements of factors pertinent to decisions, such as costs or questionnaire results that capture sentiments.
Behavior that is goal-oriented in reaching a decision. Behavior is guided by the consequences likely to result from the selection of a given alternative. A decision maker believes based upon analysis that a chosen alternative will result in achieving one or more desired objectives.
Explanation of reasons for an input. A way of thinking about a decision that stresses political, logical, and ethical means of drawing an inference to make a judgment. Actual not arbitrary position. Decision tool that bypasses and substitutes for unaided judgment.
Use of a past decision as an example from which premises about information relationships are drawn and used to make future decisions.
Town hall meeting
The formulation or view of a problem. It is developed so the problem will be easier to solve. Choices for which there is a rich informational base and an accepted way to manipulate the data. Single value substituted for segment of a distribution.
Amount by which average utility is to be reduced to account for risk, to produce a certain equivalent. The chance that a bad outcome will occur, no matter what precautions are taken. Thus, risk is used to describe the costs associated with the inability to predict exactly, even if you have what you think are "precise" probabilities, since any probability that you can expect a favorable outcome up to In decision theory and in statistics, risk means uncertainty for which the probability distribution is known.
Accordingly, risk analysis] it means a study to determine the outcomes of decisions along with their probabilities. In systems analysis, a decision maker is often concerned with the probability that a project the chosen alternative cannot be carried out with the time and money available. This risk of failure may differ from alternative to alternative and should be estimated as part of the analysis.
In another usage, risk means an uncertain and strongly adverse impact, as in "the risks of nuclear power plants to the population are The source or origin of a decision that indicates the necessity to act. An approach that is based on experience, not scientific knowledge, and is thought to be useful in carrying out some aspects of decision making. A decision rule calling for the first alternative that meets preset norms to be adopted.
A prospect comprising a sequence of events. A systematic program of action to attain an objective that is often unspoken and applied intuitively. Decisions made in situations that are information-poor and in which there is no obvious or agreed-upon way to formulate the decision to collect and analyze information.
A technique used to examine the risk in assumptions about key factors, such as interest rates and the relative weight of cost and quality criteria, in the choice among alternatives. Sensitivity analysis is the most general term used to describe through which one gauges the relative sensitivity of the value of the objective function to a one unit change in any of its solution variables.
It is often done by running a decision model several times with different inputs so a modeler can analyze the alternative results. Testing the impact of alternative input judgments on analysis findings. Decisions in which opportunities to purchase clarifying information arise throughout the decision process.
Set of possibilities vs. A possibility that affects an option consequence but is not itself a consequence. Simulation Models A simulation is the execution of a model, represented by a computer program that gives information about the system being investigated.
The simulation approach of analyzing a model is opposed to the analytical approach, where the method of analyzing the system is purely theoretical. As this approach is more reliable, the simulation approach gives more flexibility and convenience. The activities of the model consist of events, which are activated at certain points in time and in this way affect the overall state of the system. The points in time that an event is activated are randomized, so no input from outside the system is required.
Events exist autonomously and they are discrete so between the executions of two events nothing happens. Why are we running these simulations? Simulation is an appropriate methodology whenever a social phenomenon is not directly accessible, either because it no longer exits as in archaeological studies or because its structure or the effects of its structurei.
The simulation is based upon a model constructed by the researcher that is more observable than the target phenomenon itself. Produces only one evaluation of a given judgment. Professional decision-maker in "private practice" Stakeholders: Controversial or confusing issues that are prominently discussed in the news have led to more town halls being held. List of significant United States town hall meetings InTea Party groups opposed to the proposed health care reform legislation began attending town halls to express their disagreement with the legislation.
The large and vocal crowds led some representatives to cancel or scale back their town hall events. Representative Brian Baird canceled his live town hall meetings after receiving death threats, choosing to hold a telephone conference call with his constituents instead.
Obama held some as sitting President, starting in Federal agencies have held town halls on Twitter since at least Inconstituents opposed to repeal of that same health care act began attending town halls to express their disagreement with abolishing the legislation. In districts where elected representatives have not scheduled town halls, some constituents have publicly petitioned for meetings. These efforts, which also included panels of voters to offer comment in print and on radio shows, have been collectively praised as an "international best practice.
In Shunichi Suzukithen governor of Tokyoheld a town hall meeting, its name and format inspired by President Carter's televised town hall.
In subsequent years, media conglomerate TBS has organized town hall meetings with both Japanese and foreign politicians. The format extends beyond governmental administration and political parties. Format[ edit ] The purpose of town hall meetings is for local and regional officials to hear the community's views on public issues. Usually, the person holding the meeting e. The main part of a town hall meeting tends to occur when the floor is opened up to questions and comments from the audience.