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As a result, population growth has stalled—and in some cases, significantly reversed—in the richer countries, and accelerated elsewhere. For example, inthe population of Europe was about two-and-a-half times the population of Africa.
Bythe population of Africa was the larger—and it is projected to be almost three times that of Europe by And it has of course been transforming, in large measure as a direct consequence of the decades of intense globalization dating from around In the first decade of this century, the world changed profoundly.
Twenty-one countries all of them developing economies more than doubled their GDP. In aggregate, developing economies grew at an average annual rate of 4.
They have contributed substantially more, even in absolute terms, to global GDP growth than the developed economies for more than a decade. For example, in China, life expectancy has increased by more than 30 years sincewhile participation in secondary education has increased from little over one-third as recently as to over 80 percent today.
The infographic in figure 2 illustrates the reduction of poverty now forecast between and —and this follows on the heels of similar reductions that have taken place for the past 20 years. The worst impacts of the Western financial crisis and recession appear to be over.
But it would be even more foolish to assume that the seismic shifts witnessed over the last 20 years are over. With the exception ofsub-Saharan Africa has averaged annual growth rates of more than 5 percent over the past decade—and its growth is forecast to continue at around that level.
Meanwhile, demography continues to favor many developing economies over the more mature nations. This spread of prosperity and opportunity is welcome and a potential source of long-term growth for enterprises from all parts of the world.
But it is also substantially increasing the level of complexity and uncertainty in the business landscape. That scenario appears far less credible today. Many important trade, cultural, and political linkages are decreasingly led by or dependent upon Western actors. Recently released UN data show that the share of south-south trade in total world exports doubled in the last 20 years. Its share now stands at 25 percent, and is set to rise further.
Standards and practices around the protection of intellectual property which naturally tends to advantage incumbents are also being challenged and might well continue to diverge in the years ahead.
These shifts in relationships and rules might also be accelerated by growing challenges related to sustainability, linked in particular to climate change, food production, energy, and water.
Over the next 15 years, the global population will likely increase by more than a billion; food and energy requirements are both forecast to rise by 50 percent and 40 percent, respectively; and water requirements already under enormous stress in many parts of the world will increase by around 30 percent.
The next wave of globalization will bring fresh challenges on many levels for businesses and the people who manage them. In this report, we offer a set of nine trends with real implications for managerial decision making and action. Do these represent the entire story of change? Our selection of these particular trends reflects our conviction that, amid the turmoil of many ongoing and dynamic changes, it is possible to put some stakes in the ground.
These managerially relevant trends are very robust and can be acted upon with confidence as organizations seek to grow, innovate, and achieve breakthrough performance in a changing world. All are changes that have been many years in the making.
Nor do we make a conscious attempt to cover the waterfront and describe how the new wave of globalization will hit every aspect of business management. Nonetheless, the trends we describe end up falling into three major categories of impact, and that has prompted us to present them in the order we have. The first three relate to the very deep changes companies are beginning to encounter in the nature of global consumers. The second three all reflect a fascinating shift in how business gets done, focusing on collaboration both inside and outside the walls of the enterprise.
The final three identify key ways in which leadership is being challenged and changed by the next wave of globalization. The first three trends unleashed by the next wave of globalization go straight to this core issue. Global businesses will need to comprehend the growth of consumer markets that are geographically and socioeconomically dissimilar to their traditional ones.
The consumers they serve will have different needs—and higher expectations of the businesses they choose to patronize. The first trend we note is the emergence of another billion. As noted above, extreme poverty has been in steady and meaningful decline over the last 20 years—both as a percentage of global population and, remarkably given the continued rise in overall populationin absolute numbers of people as well figure 3.
What consumer-serving company could fail to be excited about that growth? The problem for many, however, is that all this growth will take place in parts of the world they have not traditionally served. It is in the emerging markets of Asia, Africa, and Latin America that growth rates over the past two decades have raised income and consumption to unprecedented levels.
Byit is estimated that the number of people in the global middle class will amount to 3. Understanding the complex demands of this diverse cohort will be a difficult task—they are geographically and culturally diverse, more youthful, and less affluent than their Western counterparts.
But given their scale and contribution to overall global growth in consumption, the task is an essential one. Our discussion of this trend explores the needs of this consumer group and discusses the ways in which businesses must rethink their market and growth strategies to reach and serve them effectively.
Exploring the changing nature of demand points us toward another consumer-oriented trend. In large part because of the new wave of globalization, there is a far more powerful connection between business and social impact. The global ambitions of large companies demand a new approach to social and environmental concerns. In the absence of stable infrastructure in many locations, businesses are working with other stakeholders to find and maintain solutions.
While the motivations for attention to social challenges can range from risk mitigation to competitive positioning to achieving market differentiation and growth, a commitment to finding socially based solutions will increasingly be a requirement for success in serving an array of markets.
Our exploration of this trend describes the new business imperative and offers examples of businesses that are addressing broader social goals as they pursue success.
Introduction: Navigating the next wave of globalization | Deloitte Insights
Meanwhile, there is yet another dimension to the dynamic of new consumers. Not only are these new consumers citizens of emerging economies, they are also increasingly urban.
Our third trend notes that, today, we exist on a city planet. This creates the need for forward-thinking companies to pay far more attention to their city strategies—because urban areas are so rich in opportunity but so complex and challenging to serve. Byurban populations will reach almost 5 billion, with growth concentrated in the cities of Asia and Africa.
They are taking their place alongside the long-established global cities of the developed world to exert powerful influence, especially as centers of talent and innovation.
However, such vast cities are only part of the new urban story; collectively, they account for less than 10 percent of global city dwellers. Smart business leaders recognize cities as much more than just sources of concentrated and growing demand. They see them as hotbeds of talent and innovation, and as the setting for some of the most interesting and important problems that businesses could help to solve.
In an increasingly interconnected global economy, more businesses will discover the power of looking beyond their own organizations and their familiar markets for the inspiration for their next products and services.
They will recognize that the best use of a toolkit they have been using in marketing communications—social media—is actually to connect and collaborate across many areas of the business and with all manner of stakeholders. And, leveraging the richer connections they have made with supply chain partners over the past two decades, they will develop the ability to respond flexibly and efficiently to changes in demand wherever they occur in the world.
The first of the trends we explore in this section is the fact that, increasingly, innovation happens everywhere. The phrase is true in two senses. We survey how the world of innovation is becoming globally dispersed, broadly moving eastward as a result of the pull of new consumers and new talent.
We see the evidence of this in the gleaming new technology parks of Shanghai, and in the research labs multinationals have located in Asia. Interestingly, these two shifts in the locus of innovation seem to fuel each other. In a recent survey by Deloitte of global executives figure 6emerging market executives were more likely to state that they anticipated increased collaborative efforts, both with developed market companies with which 65 percent of emerging market executives expected more collaboration and with other emerging market companies with which 72 percent expected more collaboration.The Big Picture - Pharma Vision 2030
These factors combine to create new horizons, in a trend we call social business, global business. The ongoing increase in high bandwidth connectivity, coupled with a tremendous expansion of highly effective social media technologies, continues to increase collaboration capabilities. Until now, social media has been used mostly by individuals, and the result has been an explosion in growth in the use of social platforms across the world, creating a truly global phenomenon.
In the next few years, we expect to see businesses use social media to extend their connections with customers, suppliers, partners, and employees, and to become more globally connected.
Our discussion of this trend highlights the ways in which companies are using social technology to maintain a balance between local intimacy and global reach, and hence are becoming more effective global organizations. There is much progress to be made.
In both developed and emerging markets, 61 percent of surveyed executives expected social media to become somewhat or much more important to their business over the next three years.
As sophisticated use increases, companies are finding that social media provides benefits in operational efficiencies and collaboration opportunities. The effects may be so profound that it could reshape how we think about organizations in the years to come. They have been central drivers of successful globalization throughout history. In the chapter on anticipatory supply chains, we describe the changes happening in the world of global supply networks, and the critical role that data, strategy, and collaboration should play in success.
In recent years, optimal supply chains were designed, in principle, for standardization and cost-efficiency. But as the next wave of globalization is characterized by change and uncertainty, many businesses are finding their supply chains to be less than fit for purpose. We know that successful global businesses now construct supply arrangements that encourage adaptability and flexibility; supply networks of the future will be designed to anticipate changes and respond to them accordingly.
Working seamlessly with partners to develop anticipatory supply chains will require more powerful predictive analytics and a far closer connection with strategy.
New leadership Periods of turmoil, disruption, and uncertainty have been, almost invariably, accompanied by shifts in leadership—of industries and institutions, and at the individual level, by creating new imperatives. It is wonderful for managers and investors, but hell on workers and nature.
Multinational corporations are accused of social injustice, unfair working conditions including slave labor wages and poor living and working conditionsas well as a lack of concern for the environment, mismanagement of natural resources, and ecological damage.
Multinational corporations which were previously restricted to commercial activities are increasingly influencing political decisions. Many think there is a threat of corporations ruling the world because they are gaining power due to globalization.
Opponents say globalization makes it easier for rich companies to act with less accountability. Anti-globalists also claim that globalization is not working for the majority of the world. During the most recent period of rapid growth in global trade and investment, toinequality worsened both internationally and within countries. The positive side of globalization Globalization has a positive side as well.
Supporters of globalization argue that it has the potential to make this world a better place to live in and solve some deep-seated problems like unemployment and poverty. The marginal are getting a chance to exhibit in the world market. Here are some other arguments for globalization: The proponents of global free trade say that it promotes global economic growth, creates jobs, makes companies more competitive, and lowers prices for consumers.
It also provides poor countries, through infusions of foreign capital and technology, with the chance to develop economically and by spreading prosperity creates the conditions in which democracy and respect for human rights may flourish. Globalization and democracy should go hand-in-hand.